Numerical simulation and risk calculation on storm surge of Ningbo

Based on the typhoon storm surge historical data of tide gauge stations, analyzing the simulation capabilities of the five remarkable typhoon storm surges by using the operational typhoon storm surge numerical model, results show that the model had well performance in simulating the storm surges which influenced the Ningbo region, especially for the peak surge. Therefore, taken the Zhenhai tide gauge station as the breakthrough point, used the tropical cyclone No.5612 (Wanda) which caused the biggest storm surge of Ningbo, shifted and then combined the different intensity level of tropical cyclones to build multiple hypothetical optimal tropical cyclones for the risk calculation of Ningbo region, to gain the probable maximum storm surge of five category that covered from the strong tropical storm to the super typhoon; moreover, the corresponding return period by using Pearson-Ⅲ distribution method was also carried out, the aim of the work is to provide the decision support for the effectively prevent various tropical cyclone storm surge in the future.